Predicting Athletic Performance with Personality Assessment


An American football field shows the 50-yard line with white hash marks, white yard numbers, and a yellow center stripe on green artificial turf. The image accompanies an article about predicting athletic success with personality assessment.

Can personality predict the success of professional athletes? Whether helping NBA teams predict rookie-year performance or NFL teams perfect their draft, personality assessment meets the talent management needs of professional sports organizations.

On episode 134 of The Science of Personality, cohosts Ryne Sherman, PhD, and Blake Loepp spoke with Nadine Maliakkal, PhD, talent analytics consultant at Hogan, about predicting athletic success with personality assessment.

Nadine has been at the forefront of Hogan’s research in athletic performance prediction. Apart from working at Hogan, she is a competitive synchronized figure skater. “For me, synchronized skating fostered such a deep appreciation for team sports and equipping the sports industry with personality insights,” she said.

Using personality assessment in sports is relatively new, but personality has already shown itself to be a prime differentiator in athletic talent strategy.

Why Do Sports Organizations Use Personality Assessment?

Sports organizations have recently undergone a seismic shift, Nadine explained. From the professionalization of collegiate athletes to the record-high valuations of global sports franchises, sports organizations increasingly resemble businesses. In fact, sports organizations and corporations already have a lot of similarities. Both are focused on performance goals, leadership effectiveness, and team dynamics.

Evaluating talent is critical to avoid the financial cost of poor performance and to predict the outcomes for the team. “Athletes know assessment is important,” Nadine said. “They want to know who is going to be successful.” Personality assessment helps sports organizations better understand and predict talent beyond what physical performance can show. The demand for accurate prediction applies to selection for professional athletes as well as coaches.

Hogan partners with US-based football teams, basketball teams, and other professional sports organizations. Here are some of the trends we’ve seen in what makes a professional athlete successful.

Personality in the NFL

One major use case of Hogan assessment data in the National Football League (NFL)  is understanding players before they get drafted. Scientifically validated assessments provide a standardized way to compare players outside of other performance metrics.

Personality reveals athletes’ ambition, drive, and potential derailers—what will get in the way of their on-the-field performance. “You need to have players who listen, apply what they’ve learned, and execute,” Nadine said. She described the importance of work ethic, discipline, learning, and coachability: “We can give insight into those things through personality.”

Personality of Defensive Players

So, how do high-performing defense players and offense players differ?

Compared with their offensive counterparts, players on defense tend to be lower on the Hogan Personality Inventory's Interpersonal Sensitivity scale and higher on the Hogan Development Survey's Skeptical and Reserved scales. Their highest Motives, Values, Preferences Inventory values tend to be Security and Aesthetics.

Sports personality assessment also provides insights into more objective aspects of athletic performance. “In NFL players on defense, we’re seeing higher [HPI] Prudence linked to more tackles and higher [HDS] Mischievous scores linked to more sacks,” Nadine said. It makes sense—individuals with higher Prudence scores are likely to be laser-focused on their task of tackling. When it comes to sacking a quarterback, a defensive player needs to understand what plays will be called so they can come out on top. This is risk taking that higher Mischievous scores would facilitate.

“When we’re talking about some of the most elite athletes in the world, small things could make all the difference for how someone performs,” Nadine said. Data-driven talent insights can provide that slight difference that leads to success in the sport.

Personality of Offensive Players

Unsurprisingly, professional athletes tend to score very high on MVPI Power, which helps players drive for greatness. Nadine also sees team-focused scores emerge with offensive players. “They’re a little bit more jovial. They tend to have bigger personalities,” she said.

Compared with their defensive teammates, how players on offense tend to show up is more team oriented. They score higher on HPI Interpersonal Sensitivity and lower on Moving Away HDS scales, such as Skeptical, Reserved, and Leisurely. Their MVPI Affiliation scores are also higher, which suggests a preference for networking, teamwork, and belonging.

For successful skills across NFL teams, Nadine pointed out that HDS Diligent and Dutiful help elite players stay coachable and disciplined to the point of perfectionism. “You’ve got to be able to cancel out the noise and just focus on your craft. You’ve got to listen to your coaches and deliver,” she said.

Personality in the NBA

The personality characteristics of National Basketball Association (NBA) basketball players are a different matter. Preliminary analyses with NBA players linking their personality to rookie-year performance showed that higher HPI Adjustment and lower Interpersonal Sensitivity are linked to more minutes played and points scored. Nadine explained, “With Adjustment, we’re talking about confidence and resilience toward the intensity of the game.” The pace of play is much faster in the NBA than at collegiate levels, a change that requires the adaptability of higher Adjustment to be successful.

According to Nadine, lower Interpersonal Sensitivity is an asset. Given the pace of basketball, there may not be time for politeness. “You expect to see aggressiveness in sports, and quite frankly, you need it to win,” she said. Unlike in the corporate environment where being seen as likeable is desirable, having a direct or even tough communication style is helpful. It’s advantageous to have direct and confrontational conversations, especially around performance. As hard as criticism can be to hear, elite athletes often appreciate the blunt feedback that will keep them at the very top of their craft.

How Does Socioanalytic Theory Apply to Professional Athletes?

The Hogan assessments are based on socioanalytic theory. Very briefly, socioanalytic theory holds that people always live in groups with hierarchy and are driven by the motivation to seek social acceptance, status, and meaning.1 Individuals differ in the degree to which they pursue these motives and in their ability to achieve them. “In the context of sports, socioanalytic theory comes to life,” Nadine said.

One main way that people can meet these three core needs is through interpersonal interactions with the people in their group. Professional athletes are surrounded by people: teammates, coaches, agents, trainers, psychologists, nutritionists, technical specialists, and more. The groups also have a status hierarchy: coaches, managers, owners, officials, referees, leagues, and associations. The sports industry has a culture of meaningful achievement and lasting impact, such as breaking historical records or leaving legacies.

Now, professional athletes have a much higher need for status compared to the everyday individual. Every aspect of their athletic performance is evaluated on an extremely high standard. Thus, they also have a greater ability to acquire status, hence becoming the most elite players in their game. They do, however, share some common characteristics that help them stand out.

Competencies for Professional Athletes

Coaches and sports organizations consistently look for talent with a few essential competencies: discipline, drive, and coachability.

  • Discipline - Elite athletes are prepared to work, follow schedules and protocols, and show up for their teams.
  • Drive - Professional athletes are intrinsically motivated to excel. They show confidence and are willing to persevere through challenges to succeed.
  • Coachability - The best players respond to coaching, listen to others, and take accountability for their performance.

“Hogan personality insights work everywhere, but they also work specifically within the world of sports,” Nadine said.

Listen to this conversation in full on episode 134 of The Science of Personality. Never miss an episode by following us anywhere you get podcasts. Cheers, everybody!

Reference

  1. Hogan, R., & Blickle, G. (2018). Socioanalytic Theory: Basic Concepts, Supporting Evidence and Practical Implications. In V. Zeigler-Hill & T. K. Shackelford (Eds.), The SAGE Handbook of Personality and Individual Differences: The Science of Personality and Individual Differences (pp. 110–129). Sage Reference. https://doi.org/10.4135/9781526451163.n5